Nuclear-Fueled Tensions: Is Another War Between India and Pakistan Imminent Following Aerial Strikes?

Topline

On Wednesday, tensions escalated between India and Pakistan following an overnight airstrike carried out by India’s military against what they claimed were “terrorist facilities” within their neighbor’s territory. This escalation came just two weeks after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for orchestrating a lethal terrorist incident that resulted in the deaths of 26 people at a tourist destination in Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Key Facts

The Indian missile strikes—named “Operation Sindoor”—were carried out early Wednesday local time, and officials in New Delhi claimed they targeted nine locations where “terrorist attacks against India have been planned.”

The strikes represented the most substantial military action undertaken by India against Pakistan since 2019.
airstrikes on Balakot
in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

India said the Wednesday strikes did not target any Pakistani military infrastructure and claimed it acted on intelligence regarding further “cross-border attacks” being planned against India, which it wanted to deter.

Pakistan’s authorities firmly condemned the attacks, labeling them as “a unprovoked and clear aggression” that “breached Pakistan’s territorial integrity,” and they alleged that India was employing a “fabricated excuse regarding fictitious terror camps” to justify the operation.

Islamabad stated that 26 civilians were reported dead due to the attacks and at least 46 more sustained injuries.

Pakistan’s leaders asserted, without presenting proof, that they successfully brought down five Indian fighter jets, but
maintained
it retained the right to react to the “unprovoked and unjustified attacks.”


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here
.

What Have Both Parties Stated Regarding Potential Further Escalation?

Following the assertion of having shot down five Indian aircraft—where India hasn’t commented yet—Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif indicated that future Pakistani moves would hinge on India’s next steps. He stated, “Should India attack, we’ll retaliate; should they step back, we’ll conclude our operations,” as reported by him.
Bloomberg TV
. But the country’s National Security Committee later insisted Pakistan reserved the right to respond to the strikes. In a
statement
Moreover, the committee encouraged the “global community to acknowledge the severity of India’s unjustified and unlawful acts and to ensure accountability for its clear breaches of international standards and regulations.” The Indian authorities have not disclosed any plans regarding potential future operations; however, at a press conference, Indian Air Force Wing Commander Vyomika Singh stated: “Our military stands ready to counteract any provocative moves by Pakistan that could intensify hostilities.”

What Is Known About the Military Strengths of India and Pakistan?

Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, increasing the potential for severe escalation should a full-scale conflict break out. As stated by the
CIA’s World Factbook
India boasts approximately 1.5 million active military personnel, ranking it among the globe’s most substantial armed forces. In contrast, Pakistan maintains a considerably smaller force size.
around 630,000
Active-duty personnel. Even though India has a bigger military force, their troops are more dispersed because they must also address tensions with China along their contested northern and northeastern frontiers. As per the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, India possesses a nuclear weapons stockpile which comprises of
164 warheads
while Pakistan is thought to possess
170 nuclear weapons
Unlike Pakistan, India possesses a nuclear triad, enabling it to deploy weaponry from land, air, and underwater platforms.

What Do We Know About Both Sides’ Nuclear Use Policies?

India said it maintains a so-called “no first use” policy when it comes to nuclear weapons. This means India pledges not to use nuclear weapons in a conflict outside of a retaliatory strike against a nuclear attack by another country. Pakistan does not adhere to the policy, and, unlike India, its nuclear arsenal is believed to include
smaller tactical warheads
that could be used on the battlefield instead of strategic targets like major cities. These tactical warheads can be launched using smaller missiles like the
Nasr
. Experts warn that such smaller warheads may increase the risk of any confrontation turning into a larger nuclear conflict.

What Information Exists Regarding Previous Disputes Between India and Pakistan?

The initial conflict between India and Pakistan occurred in 1947, coinciding with their division into separate nations based on religion and liberation from British rule. Following this partition, both nations asserted claims over the erstwhile princely state of Kashmir, which became the focal point for ongoing tensions between them. A truce mediated by the United Nations was ultimately reached in 1949, dividing Kashmir at what came to be known as the “Line of Control.” Despite this agreement, each country maintained complete sovereignty over Kashmir throughout these discussions. Hostilities erupted once more between the two adversaries during another clash in Kashmir in 1965, until they settled upon yet another cease-fire arrangement.
Russian and American-brokered peace agreement
In Tashkent, the two nations clashed once more in 1971, leading to East Pakistan achieving independence and transforming into the nation of Bangladesh. Their last significant confrontation happened in 1999 when several Pakistani soldiers covertly entered the Kargil area within Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. Despite reclaiming control over this territory from the Indians, they refrained from advancing further due to each side possessing nuclear weapons. Although these adversaries haven’t engaged directly since then, India consistently alleges that Pakistan supports insurgency activities in Kashmir as well as various large-scale terrorist incidents on their land, such as the attack on Mumbai in 2008.

Further Reading

India Initiates Missile Attacks Against Pakistan—Islamabad Labels It as an ‘Act of War’
(WARNEWS)

Pakistan Asserts ‘Strong Proof’ of Imminent ‘Military Action’ by India Amid Escalating Tensions Between Countries
(WARNEWS)

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