(Bloomberg) — An ongoing conflict between Sudan’s military forces and a para-militia organization continues to unfold.
exploded
Into an all-out civil war by April 2023. According to U.S. assessments, at least 150,000 individuals might have lost their lives since then, with no indication that the brutality is diminishing.
Many people have been forced from their residences, resulting in what the United Nations characterizes as the globe’s largest refugee situation. Overlooked due to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, this is a significant human tragedy that seldom garners media attention.
Foreign contributors have pledged significantly more assistance to Ukraine compared to what has been provided to the nation in North Africa. The United Arab Emirates and Iran have faced accusations of supplying arms and financial support to the conflicting parties, thereby hampering attempts by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to mediate.
broker a ceasefire
.
How did the unrest in Sudan escalate?
For thirty years, Sudan’s military has been the nation’s dominant force, supporting dictator Omar al-Bashir until they removed him from power in 2019. Then, in 2021, under the leadership of Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the armed forces overthrew a fragile governing partnership between civilians and military officials.
coup
sparked new unrest and a deadly crackdown by security forces.
As the generals took almost complete command, an ongoing feud intensified between the military and a prominent militia called the Rapid Support Forces, which played a key role in toppling Bashir. Tensions escalated when the army suggested integrating RSF members into conventional security units, leading to clashes; this move was opposed by the militia’s head, who wished to maintain their autonomy.
What factors have contributed to the prolonged duration of the civil war in Sudan?
Mediators, regional officials and diplomats say the involvement of external actors has perpetuated and exacerbated the violence.
The Sudanese government
severed official ties
with the UAE in May over what it described as “ongoing aggression” in the civil war, accusing the Gulf nation of supplying the RSF with weapons. UN experts and US congressmen have echoed the allegation that Abu Dhabi is backing the militia group. UAE officials have repeatedly denied any involvement by their country. Iran, meanwhile, has supplied Sudan’s army with combat drones and other support.
Is one side gaining an advantage in Sudan’s civil war?
Sudan’s military appeared to have the upper hand by March 2025 after pushing the RSF back in large parts of the country and recapturing control of capital city Khartoum, although the RSF retained control of most of the western Darfur region.
The fighting
entered a new phase
in May when the militia used drones to attack Port Sudan, a key trade hub that lies on the Red Sea and serves as the army’s de-facto seat of government, and the nearby Flamingo Bay
naval base
. Fuel storage depots, power lines and other infrastructure were damaged, and aid distribution was disrupted. Up until then, Port Sudan had been spared and was a haven for Sudanese fleeing violence elsewhere.
Experts have suggested that Sudan might face a situation similar to Libya, where the nation ultimately divides into two distinct areas of governance.
Who exactly are the Rapid Support Forces?
The RSF traces its roots back to a government-supported initiative.
janjaweed militias
That plagued Darfur in the early 2000s. It’s headed by ex-camel merchant Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, once an enforcer for Bashir who assisted in toppling the autocrat. Afterward, Dagalo took up the role of deputy within the quasi-presidential Sovereign Council, positioning himself as Sudan’s effective number two.
Even though it lacks significant aerial support and armor, the RSF remains a well-experienced combat unit. At the beginning of the conflict, it was believed to have up to 70,000 fighters; however, the impact of the battles on their troop numbers is uncertain.
sanctioned the RSF
and Dagalo in January 2025 after concluding that the group had committed genocide.
What’s been the fallout of Sudan’s civil war?
In a nation of almost 50 million people, about half are facing extreme hunger, according to the UN. Famine has been documented in 10 locations. Some 12 million have been displaced and Chad, Egypt and South Sudan have all seen a large influx of refugees. Humanitarian groups say their access to the conflict zones is almost non-existent.
Extreme violence
has rocked Darfur
, evoking memories of the yearslong conflict that erupted there in 2003, in which civilians were targeted based on their ethnicity.
Widespread attacks and sexual crimes
against women and girls have also been documented. Sudan is among the world’s poorest nations, coming in 176th out of the 193 countries ranked in the UN Development Program’s
human development index
.
What are the international stakes in Sudan’s civil war?
During Bashir’s rule, which began in 1989, Sudan faced international isolation. Under his leadership, the nation underwent an Islamist transformation that transformed it into a refuge for extremists like Osama bin Laden during the 1990s. The International Criminal Court
indicted
The charges against Bashir for purported war crimes and genocide in Darfur were met with resistance from the military, who declined to surrender him for prosecution. Since the conflict began, his location has remained undisclosed. Following his ousting, the U.S. removed Sudan from its three-decade list of state sponsors of terror, leading to gradual acceptance back into the fold of Western nations that viewed Sudan as a possible new partner in Africa.
China, which has supported port and railway initiatives in Sudan, shares this interest with Russia. Moscow aims to strengthen its presence across Africa following isolation from the U.S. and European Union due to its incursion into Ukraine. The once-active Russian private military firm is no more.
The Wagner Group has been engaged
in Sudan’s gold-mining sector.
What implications does Sudan’s civil war have for the surrounding area?
The violence is among a
string of setbacks
for democracy in Africa. There were
nine
successful coups in the region across 2020 to 2023, as well as five failed attempts, and Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger are among the countries that remain under military rule.
There’s a risk that the fighting in Sudan, which has seen countless insurgencies in its decades of independence, could draw in its neighbors, whether directly or through the backing of proxy forces. That would have potentially grave implications for regional security and place millions more lives at risk.
–With assistance from Michael Gunn.
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