Morning Bid: Despite Ongoing Conflicts, Hopes Rise for Easing of Trade Wars

An overview of the coming day in European and worldwide markets provided by Rocky Swift

The European theatre of World War II ended 80 years ago today, a sombre reminder as armed conflict still rages on the continent while another one threatens to ignite between nuclear powers in South Asia.

In observance of a moment of silence for VE Day, the Bank of England has postponed its policy statement by two minutes until 11:02 AM GMT. It is anticipated that the bank will maintain its measured approach to interest rate reductions, which have been less frequent compared to the pace set by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Notably, the Fed opted not to change rates yesterday amid concerns over inflation and economic downturns.

A distinct kind of global conflict seemed somewhat less heated as we approached the preliminary discussions between the U.S., led by President Donald Trump, and China over trade issues this coming weekend. This optimism caused Chinese blue-chip stocks and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index to rise by 0.75% and 1.1%, respectively, fueled by expectations that these talks might lead to reductions in reciprocal tariffs exceeding 100%.

Equity futures in both European and U.S. markets rose after Trump announced he would be holding a press conference later to discuss a trade agreement with “A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESpected, COUNTRY. THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING!!!”

This will be the initial one among approximately 200 trade deals that President Trump says he has secured but hasn’t discussed much yet. Last week, he boasted about “possible agreements” with South Korea, Japan, and India.

However, according to The New York Times, the “major” nation referred to is Britain, which was also suggested by some analysts before. In Asian trading, UK stock futures along with the pound saw an increase.

North Korea lobbed missiles into the ocean again, and Pakistan vowed retaliation for an Indian air strike, which was itself retaliation for an attack by Islamist militants last month. Stock markets in Asia weathered the drama, continuing anaemic gains seen on Wall Street after the Fed.

But steeper advances in gold and Bitcoin signalled resilient demand for defensive assets.

Significant events that might impact markets on Thursday include:

– Earnings from Europe: Siemens Energy

– US earnings: Shopify, ConocoPhillips, Warner Bros Discovery

– Trade and industrial production figures for Germany (March)

– BoE policy decision

– Weekly unemployment filings in the U.S.

– Auction for $25 billion worth of US 30-year bonds

– Bank of Canada Chief Tiff Macklem gives a statement

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(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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