The planet’s initial drone conflict between nuclear-capable adversaries has ignited in South Asia.
On Thursday, India claimed that Pakistan had launched multiple drone and missile attacks on three military installations in Indian-controlled areas and Indian-occupied Kashmir; however, Islamabad promptly refuted these accusations.
Pakistan stated that it had brought down 25 Indian drones over a short period. Meanwhile, Delhi refrained from making public comments. Analysts warn that these reciprocal assaults signify a perilous escalation in their long-standing conflict, with both nations now deploying uncrewed vehicles alongside traditional weaponry along an unstable frontier.
While Washington and other international leaders call for calm, tensions rise dangerously between India and Pakistan, poised at the brink of heightened conflict. Drones—stealthy, distant, and easily disowned—are ushering in a new era within their long-standing dispute.
“The Indo-Pak conflict is entering a new phase dominated by drones—an age where ‘unseen observers’ and precise unmanned operations could dictate whether tensions escalate or subside. Therefore, in the disputed airspace of South Asia, the party that excels in drone combat will not only observe the battleground but also control it,” says Jahara Matisek, a professor at the US Naval War College, to THE WAR NEWS.
Since Wednesday morning, Pakistan says Indian air strikes and cross-border fire have killed 36 people and injured 57 more in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. On the other side, India’s army reports at least 16 civilians dead from Pakistani shelling. India insists its missile barrage was retaliation for a deadly militant attack on Indian tourists in Pahalgam last month – an attack Islamabad denies any role in.
On Thursday, Pakistan’s military stated that they had brought down 25 Indian drones over multiple cities such as Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi. These drones—claimed to be Israeli-built Harops—were allegedly taken out with a combination of technological and weapons-based defenses. In response, India asserted that it had disabled numerous Pakistani air defense radar installations, citing an incident involving one near Lahore; however, this was refuted by Islamabad.
Laser-targeted missiles and smart bombs, along with drones and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), have become crucial elements in contemporary combat scenarios, greatly boosting the accuracy and effectiveness of military missions. They can provide coordinates for air strikes or, when fitted accordingly, pinpoint targets using lasers themselves, facilitating rapid response actions.
Drones can be used as decoys or suppression of enemy air defences, flying into contested airspace to trigger enemy radar emissions, which can then be targeted by other munitions like loitering drones or anti-radiation missiles. “This is how Ukraine and Russia both do it in their war. This dual role – targeting and triggering – makes drones a force multiplier in degrading enemy air defences without risking manned aircraft,” says Prof Matisek.
Specialists indicate that India’s drone arsenal primarily consists of Israeli-built surveillance unmanned aerial vehicles such as the IAI Searcher and Heron, alongside Harpy and Harop loitering weapons—drones designed to function also as missiles. These can perform independent reconnaissance missions and execute precise attacks. Notably, the Harop represents a move towards sophisticated, targeted combat operations, highlighting the increasing significance of loitering munitions in contemporary warfare, according to these specialists.
Experts refer to the Heron as India’s “eyes in the sky” at high altitudes, useful for both peaceful surveillance and wartime activities. The IAI Searcher Mk II, tailored for front-line missions, boasts an impressive endurance of up to 18 hours, a maximum distance capability of 300 kilometers (or 186 miles), and can reach heights of 7,000 meters (approximately 23,000 feet).
While many believe India’s combat drone numbers remain
“modest”
, a recently announced $4 billion agreement to purchase 31 MQ-9B Predators — capable of flying for 40 hours at altitudes up to 40,000 feet — from the U.S. significantly enhances its offensive abilities.
India is also developing
swarm drone
Experts suggest using numerous small drones to flood and overload air defenses, thereby enabling more valuable assets to breakthrough.
The drone fleet of Pakistan is described as “comprehensive and varied,” consisting of both locally developed and acquired systems, according to Ejaz Haider, a defense analyst from Lahore who spoke with THE WARBLOG.
He mentioned that the inventory comprises more than a thousand drones, encompassing models from China, Turkey, and local producers. Key systems include the Chinese CH-4, the Turkish Bayraktar Akinci, along with Pakistan’s indigenous Burraq and Shahpar drones. Moreover, Pakistan has also created loitering munitions, boosting its offensive capacities.
Mr. Haider mentioned that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has been progressively incorporating unmanned systems into its activities for close to ten years now. He also highlighted that one major emphasis is on the creation of “loyal wingmen” drones—unmanned aerial vehicles engineered to work in tandem with piloted planes.
Professor Matisek thinks that “Israel’s technological support, including the provision of Harop and Heron drones, has been crucial for India. In contrast, Pakistan’s dependence on Turkish and Chinese systems underscores a continuous military competition.”
Although the latest exchange of drones between India and Pakistan represents a notable intensification of their competition, it contrasts sharply with the drone-focused combat seen in the Russia-Ukraine war, according to analysts. In that conflict, drones played a crucial role in military strategies, as each side utilized thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance, pinpointing targets, and executing strikes directly.
“The use of drones in the continuing conflict as opposed to deploying fighter jets or large-scale missiles signifies a more limited military strategy. Since drones carry lighter armaments compared to crewed planes, from one perspective, this can be seen as a cautious approach. Nonetheless, should these drone operations foreshadow a larger air assault, then the strategic considerations become significantly different,” noted Manoj Joshi, an Indian defense analyst, for THE WAR NEWS.
The drone combat between India and Pakistan that we are seeing might not endure for an extended period; it could potentially mark the start of a more significant confrontation.
Ejaz Haider thinks that the recent drone operations in Jammu seem to be a strategic reaction to short-term provocations rather than an extensive reprisal from Pakistan.
“An actual retaliatory attack on India would entail demonstrating overwhelming force. This kind of action would probably cover a wider scope, utilizing various systems — including piloted and unpiloted vehicles — with the intention of addressing numerous strategic goals. The objective of such an endeavor would be to create a definitive effect, indicating a substantial intensification compared to the ongoing cycle of reprisals,” according to Mr. Haider.
Although drones have significantly transformed the combat landscape in Ukraine, their impact in the India-Pakistan conflict has been less pronounced and largely symbolic, according to analysts. In this theater, both nations continue to rely heavily on their respective manned air forces for missile strikes against each other.
“As we observe current drone warfare, it might be short-lived; this could merely be the onset of a more significant confrontation,” states Mr. Joshi.
This might indicate either a reduction in tension or an increase in conflict — both outcomes remain possible. We have reached a turning point; the path we choose moving forward is unclear.
India is clearly incorporating drones into its precise strike strategy, allowing for standoff target engagement from beyond borders without deploying piloted planes. Nonetheless, this development brings up significant inquiries as well.
Prof Matisec states that drones decrease the political and operational barriers for taking action, offering possibilities for surveillance and strikes with an aim to minimize the risk of escalating tensions.
However, these systems also introduce new factors for escalating tensions: each drone destroyed, every radar disabled, has the potential to ignite further conflict within this precarious situation involving two nuclear-armed nations.
- What we understand regarding India’s attacks on Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir
- Why Do India and Pakistan Clash Over Kashmir?
- Civilians from India and Pakistan recount the consequences following airstrikes and artillery fire.
- India claims attacks on military installations, Pakistan refutes involvement.
