Apart from their efforts in the Pokrovsk area, Russian troops are also attempting operations in both Kharkiv and Sumy regions. This isn’t merely an effort to test defenses; intense combat actions are ongoing in those areas as stated by military analyst Pavlo Narozhnyi in his commentary for the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
Narozhnyi pointed out that the adversary is exerting considerable efforts to obliterate the Ukrainian stronghold and expel the Ukrainian forces from the Kursk area, but thus far, these attempts have been unsuccessful.
The specialist indicated that as long as the Ukrainian foothold in the Kursk area remains intact, it’s unlikely for a major assault on the Sumy and Kharkiv areas to take place.
He also drew attention to the intensity of the fighting, noting that the enemy is currently engaging in around 150–160 clashes per day, dropping 120–140 aerial bombs and conducting 5,000–7,000 artillery strikes daily.
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“It’s improbable they can maintain this speed, even with the reallocation of reserves,” the specialist stated.
He added that the historical maximum was around 190 clashes per day, and such intensity lasted only a few days.
He states that we’re now at the start of the spring-summer campaign. According to this specialist, a surprise attack from another angle is improbable because the adversary has already indicated potential fronts—namely, the Sumy and Kharkiv areas. Nonetheless, he stressed that “a swift advancement through these lines shouldn’t be anticipated.” This conclusion stems from his belief that Russia lacks sufficient reinforcements or assets needed for such operations.
He pointed out that Russian troops are advancing from the Lyman area towards Kupiansk, where they’ve had some tactical successes. According to this specialist, this move aims to encircle the defenders in the Kharkiv region.
Regarding the Sumy area, he emphasized: “We must recognize that the Sumy region consists primarily of forests.” He mentioned that the adversary has advanced into the village of Novinke and is attempting to establish a presence there. Further ahead is Basivka, which is distinct from Yunakivka by a river that needs to be traversed.
“Those are always significant hurdles. Additionally, en route to Sumy lies an extensive woodland. This area will transform into a substantial natural stronghold,” the specialist mentioned.
He mentioned that Russian troops haven’t arrived in Yunakivka as of now, and battles haven’t begun elsewhere within the Sumy area. However, in the northern part of this zone, they are conducting artillery attacks on Hlukhiv and several nearby settlements; nonetheless, an actual land assault from their side hasn’t commenced yet.
“Sixty thousand is a relatively small number. They have over 100,000 troops in the Pokrovsk direction. And we are successfully repelling those 100,000. They can’t achieve anything with that number of troops,” the expert concluded, adding that in the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy group (30,000–40,000 troops) is also incapable of achieving its objectives.
Threat of a Russian offensive
Ukrainian forces are preparing for a possible intensification of Russian offensive operations by late spring or early summer along nearly the entire front line.
As reported by RBC-Ukraine, the leadership of the Ukrainian Armed Forces hasn’t ruled out the possibility that the adversary might intensify their assault near the borders of Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. In addition, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi mentioned that Russia has initiated another offensive operation in these sectors.
Syrskyi additionally mentioned that over the past few weeks, Ukrainian forces have reclaimed approximately 16 square kilometers of land in the Donetsk area.
For more information regarding Russia’s potential plans for a major offensive, refer to RBC-Ukraine’s report.
