Several days before President
Trump
and officials from his administration stated openly that they were ready to distance themselves completely
Russia-Ukraine diplomacy
, Trump vented privately about his frustrations that the discussions weren’t making progress.
Why it matters:
Following his pledge to secure a deal within 24 hours after assuming office, Trump initiated several weeks of talks before announcing on Friday that he might be close to abandoning the effort. He has not established a specific cutoff point nor indicated what steps, aside from withdrawing, he may consider next.
- “If one of the sides keeps obstructing an agreement, then we’ll simply state, ‘You’re being irrational, all of you are fools, and you’re terrible individuals,’ and we will choose not to proceed with it,” Trump stated on Friday.
Behind the scenes:
Trump made his frustrations clear a few days earlier in an impromptu conversation about the ceasefire push with several of his top advisers, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff.
- That’s when Trump brought up the notion that if an agreement isn’t made quickly, he might shift his focus to other international matters, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter.
Driving the news:
By Friday, Trump’s diatribe had evolved into an official public policy announcement.
- Rubio stated that Trump felt he had invested considerable time and effort into this matter, adding that numerous global issues currently require their attention.
- “We need to figure out … within a matter of days, whether this is doable in the short term. If it’s not, then I think we’re just going to move on,” Rubio said.
- Later on Friday Rubio held a phone call with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and reiterated that “if a clear path to peace does not emerge soon, the United States will step back from efforts to broker peace,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said.
Zoom in:
Rubio echoed Trump’s irritation with the French, British, German, and Spanish.
Ukrainian
Officials convened in Paris on Thursday for an extensive series of meetings to deliberate on the route to peace.
- “Rubio was not specific about what such a step would look like but only stressed that the U.S. wants fast progress,” one European diplomat told WARNEWS.
- Two European diplomats confirmed Rubio said Trump was losing his patience and might withdraw from the process if a deal wasn’t reached soon.
Between the lines:
Three European diplomats believed Rubio’s remarks were
primarily targeted at the Ukrainians
.
- A person closely associated with the Ukrainian administration mentioned that Rubio’s remarks appeared to be an attempt to influence Ukraine. This individual also expressed worry that if Trump pulled out of the talks, it might result in the cessation of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine.
- The European diplomats mentioned that Rubio did not discuss intensifying the pressure on Russia during the gatherings in Paris.
- “A European diplomat mentioned that the perception was that both Rubio and Witkoff are facing significant pressure from Trump, which they are passing along to the other participants,” he stated.
Reality check:
Ukraine quickly endorsed Trump’s plan for a one-month truce, yet Russia has been dragging its feet on this suggestion and contends that they are prevailing militarily. Consequently, they have several stipulations for any potential peace deal.
- Consequently, it’s improbable that the Kremlin would be particularly worried about Trump abandoning diplomatic efforts.
State of play:
The U.S. still has a chance in the game.
- During Thursday’s discussions in Paris, Rubio and Witkoff offered a framework for a possible peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict, according to statements from the State Department.
- Rubio mentioned he is currently waiting for replies from both Kyiv and Moscow.
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